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Ramond
Hello BJ players,
I wonder what's the effect of card counting (let's the say the best way of counting which is Wonging in my opinion) when the casino uses 8 decks and a cutting card on 50-60% of the deck.
Let's say the other rules are normal. Dealer stands on S17, BJ pays 3:2, so a normal house edge around 0,6 or 0,7%.
I think it is almost impossible to gain an advantage because of the 8 decks. But when it mighte be possible, it can be done on some online casino's where you can just sit without playing. Just back counting and wait till the deck is more hot (with aces and 10's).
What are other peoples experiences?
I wonder what's the effect of card counting (let's the say the best way of counting which is Wonging in my opinion) when the casino uses 8 decks and a cutting card on 50-60% of the deck.
Let's say the other rules are normal. Dealer stands on S17, BJ pays 3:2, so a normal house edge around 0,6 or 0,7%.
I think it is almost impossible to gain an advantage because of the 8 decks. But when it mighte be possible, it can be done on some online casino's where you can just sit without playing. Just back counting and wait till the deck is more hot (with aces and 10's).
What are other peoples experiences?
Playing 8 vs. 6 in Blackjack Here's the situation: You're playing in a multiple deck game, and receive a five and a three for a two-card total of eight while the dealer flips a six as his upcard. 6 deck vs 8 deck blackjack odds According to the 6 deck vs 8 deck blackjack odds theory, then the chance to win becomes more. Assume that the 9th spin is a losing spin:The following bet should be 63 times higher than the initial one.
benbakdoff
Hello BJ players,
I wonder what's the effect of card counting (let's the say the best way of counting which is Wonging in my opinion) when the casino uses 8 decks and a cutting card on 50-60% of the deck.
Let's say the other rules are normal. Dealer stands on S17, BJ pays 3:2, so a normal house edge around 0,6 or 0,7%.
I think it is almost impossible to gain an advantage because of the 8 decks. But when it mighte be possible, it can be done on some online casino's where you can just sit without playing. Just back counting and wait till the deck is more hot (with aces and 10's).
What are other peoples experiences?
I wonder what's the effect of card counting (let's the say the best way of counting which is Wonging in my opinion) when the casino uses 8 decks and a cutting card on 50-60% of the deck.
Let's say the other rules are normal. Dealer stands on S17, BJ pays 3:2, so a normal house edge around 0,6 or 0,7%.
I think it is almost impossible to gain an advantage because of the 8 decks. But when it mighte be possible, it can be done on some online casino's where you can just sit without playing. Just back counting and wait till the deck is more hot (with aces and 10's).
What are other peoples experiences?
Under the conditions you describe, I would say that the game is not worth counting and should be avoided. There are some 8 deck games that can be beaten and some that can be a tad better than a comparable 6 deck game. The important thing is good penetration and you just don't have it here. With the house edge you give, there's obviously no surrender which makes matters worse.
If you absolutely must play this game, a proper bankroll is crucial as well as aggressive Wonging and a betting spread of at least 1-20 units. Wong in at TC +2 and Wong out at 0.
You'll have to be very patient, as a very large amount of your time will be spent casing tables. I hope this isn't the only game you have access to because it's not great.
Ramond
Thank you for your asnwer.
I don't play the much online (playing in a real casino gives me much more fun) because blackjack in an online/live casino is terrible slow.
But when I do, I try to count but I wanted to know what the effect was because of the 8-deck and early cutting card.
And even when I count, sometimes I looks like the cards are 'clumped' together. What I mean is when the dealer draws small cards over and over again she keeps drawing small cards.
And for example, a dealer started with a new shoe. And out of the first 60 cards where 15 aces or some, all clumped together (maybe the shuffle is terrible).
It's on Unibet. But thanks and good to know you can't really make a long-term profit out there.
I don't play the much online (playing in a real casino gives me much more fun) because blackjack in an online/live casino is terrible slow.
But when I do, I try to count but I wanted to know what the effect was because of the 8-deck and early cutting card.
And even when I count, sometimes I looks like the cards are 'clumped' together. What I mean is when the dealer draws small cards over and over again she keeps drawing small cards.
And for example, a dealer started with a new shoe. And out of the first 60 cards where 15 aces or some, all clumped together (maybe the shuffle is terrible).
It's on Unibet. But thanks and good to know you can't really make a long-term profit out there.
Romes
The penetration is pretty horrible and the game should be avoided based off of that for 8 decks. If you indeed have 'standard rules' (DAS, DA2, S17, 3-2 BJ) I believe that game is about 0.55%.
You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.
You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.
AxiomOfChoice
The penetration is pretty horrible and the game should be avoided based off of that for 8 decks. If you indeed have 'standard rules' (DAS, DA2, S17, 3-2 BJ) I believe that game is about 0.55%.
You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.
You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.
The problem with the 8 decks is not so much that the HE off the top is higher (that is minor) but that the TC is less volatile, so profitable situations come up less frequently.
Romes
The problem with the 8 decks is not so much that the HE off the top is higher (that is minor) but that the TC is less volatile, so profitable situations come up less frequently.
Correct me if I'm wrong, and I do understand why playing with less decks is more advantageous, but for any number of decks isn't the following true?
True Count .. Advantage (%) .. Frequency Per 100 Hands
.. .. -1 .. .. .... -1.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 13
.. .. 0 .. .. .... -0.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 34
.. .. 1 .. .. .... 0.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 13
.. .. 2 .. .. .. .. 0.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 8.5
.. .. 3 .... .... .. 1.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 4.5
.. .. 4 .. .... .. 1.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 3.5
.. .. 5 .... .... 2.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 2
.. .. 6 .... .... 2.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 2
.. .. 7 .. .. .... 3.0% .. .. .. .. .. .. 1
.. .. 8 .. .. .. .. 3.5% .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.5
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
AxiomOfChoice
Correct me if I'm wrong, and I do understand why playing with less decks is more advantageous, but for any number of decks isn't the following true?
True Count Advantage (%) Frequency Per 100 Hands
-1 -1.0% 13
0 -0.5% 34
1 0.0% 13
2 0.5% 8.5
3 1.0% 4.5
4 1.5% 3.5
5 2.0% 2
6 2.5% 2
7 3.0% 1
8 3.5% 0.5
True Count Advantage (%) Frequency Per 100 Hands
-1 -1.0% 13
0 -0.5% 34
1 0.0% 13
2 0.5% 8.5
3 1.0% 4.5
4 1.5% 3.5
5 2.0% 2
6 2.5% 2
7 3.0% 1
8 3.5% 0.5
Where did you get those numbers from? That can't possibly be right.
First, the frequency depends on penetration. The deeper you deal, the more frequently the higher counts will come out.
Second, it has to depend on the number of decks. Think about it: If you are playing double deck, the true count could easily jump to +2 after the first hand. That's more or less impossible at an 8 deck game. The TC will jump around a lot quicker with fewer decks because the denominator is smaller (that's the same reason that you need deeper penetration to get the higher counts out; the denominator drops as you deal deeper).
Romes
Where did you get those numbers from? That can't possibly be right.
First, the frequency depends on penetration. The deeper you deal, the more frequently the higher counts will come out.
Second, it has to depend on the number of decks. Think about it: If you are playing double deck, the true count could easily jump to +2 after the first hand. That's more or less impossible at an 8 deck game. The TC will jump around a lot quicker with fewer decks because the denominator is smaller (that's the same reason that you need deeper penetration to get the higher counts out; the denominator drops as you deal deeper).
First, the frequency depends on penetration. The deeper you deal, the more frequently the higher counts will come out.
Second, it has to depend on the number of decks. Think about it: If you are playing double deck, the true count could easily jump to +2 after the first hand. That's more or less impossible at an 8 deck game. The TC will jump around a lot quicker with fewer decks because the denominator is smaller (that's the same reason that you need deeper penetration to get the higher counts out; the denominator drops as you deal deeper).
Again, I understand why this makes sense with fewer decks. But how many times in a DD game have you had a TC +3 for 4-5 deals? That's quite possible in a 6 or 8 deck game where as it's not as likely in a DD game. So overall they should average out and you should have an equal number of advantageous bets, with yes, lower number of decks being more short term 'volatile' to the TC.
http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6DeckText.htm (about 40% of the way down the page)
by Arnold Snyder
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Ibeatyouraces
deleted
1BB
The penetration is pretty horrible and the game should be avoided based off of that for 8 decks. If you indeed have 'standard rules' (DAS, DA2, S17, 3-2 BJ) I believe that game is about 0.55%.
You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.
You can absolutely gain an advantage in this game (assuming you find a dealer with better penetration), regardless of the 8 decks. The lower number of decks yes the slightly better odds you get, but the math works the same. Each true count will increase you by ~.5%. Thus, in the game you're describing you can have an advantage at TC +2 and above. With wonging I don't see why this game wouldn't be beatable (if you can find a table with much better penetration). Again, this is for much better penetration (75%+). If you absolutely can't find anything above 50-60% PEN, I wouldn't play.
I don't think Raymond is going to see this 3 1/2 year post. His last visit was on Nov 7, 2011. I was the first to respond to him. Yup, I was benbakdoff in another life.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
LostWages
I'm comparing these games at the Cal & MSS (recent trips Oct 2016 and Apr 2017).I've never played a shoe game. I only played pitch blackjack (5 buy-ins last Oct 2016, 2 buy-ins Apr 2017). I had small but positive returns on both occasions. My first time to successfully card-count was this past Apr 2017.
http://wizardofvegas.com/member/lostwages/blog/#post1540
On my 3rd trip (maybe end of 2017 or early 2018), I'm thinking to myself that I should try a shoe game AT LEAST ONCE. FYI, I plan to return to stay and play at MSS, not the Cal. In between blackjack, I will go for the scratchers at the Boar's Head Bar or nearby alcoves that have 10/7 DB with 100.62% ER after factoring in 9 more coins when you get a quad.
After trying the shoe game, if I don't like it, I'll revert to pitch blackjack,
However, whether or not I'll like the shoe game, I have already planned to revise my bankroll and betting strategy so that I'm not underfunded, and have enough BR to cover double downs and positive TC counts >=3.
AFTER I'm sure I know the differences between 2-deck and 6-deck blackjack, I'll work on this strategy. Thanks to all the tips from WoV members, I've now compiled what I think is a usable table comparing 2-deck and 6-deck blackjack. I'm trying to plan my 'attack' months before my trip, so that I will act as natural as possible and not attract attention.
My questions are:
1. Did I miss any elements to compare for 2-deck vs 6-deck blackjack? Again, I've never played 6-deck blackjack, so I might easily have misinterpreted tips and suggestions I've been reading on the WoV forum.
2. Any GENERAL guidelines to planning my bankroll? I am a low-roller, and my BR will be under $1,000 for 3 or 4 playing days.
3. If possible, I prefer to play head-to-head early in the mornings, at least until I'm really comfortable card-counting. I understand this means I'd have to play through negative TCs, but is there anything I might be overlooking?
Comparing | 2-deck Blackjack (pitch) | 6-deck Blackjack (shoe) |
---|---|---|
Bankroll | still figuring out, suggestions welcomed! | still figuring out, suggestions welcomed! |
Bets | Rapidly change, but doesn't last long | Slowly change, but you'll have more rounds to continue with ramped up bet |
Cards, number of | 104 | 312 |
Card-counting | Count hole cards when flipped over, and hit cards that come out on the felt. | Start counting when players get their 2nd card, and use cancellation principle. |
Count fluctuation | Frequently and rapidly goes up and down; new shuffle comes quickly before you can make more than 2-3 ramped up bets. | Changes more gradually, but you get more than 2-3 rounds to continue with ramped up bets. |
Dealing | First card is dealt face down, succeeding cards face up. Player can only hold cards with one hand | Cards are dealt face up. Player MAY NOT touch cards. |
Double-down (non-Ace pairs can be split up to 4x) | more likely to win | less likely to win |
HE (WoV Survey) | .60225 | .78327 |
Max TC + (Hi/Lo) | 30.075 | 52.174 |
Min/Max | $5/$1,000 | $5/$500 |
Playing time (faster if fewer players) | 15-20 min for 3-4 shuffles, approximating dealer's shift time at Cal & MSS | At 10-15 min per shoe, the pace is faster than pitch BJ. I've not played a shoe game, but I estimate 1-2 shoes/20 min dealer shift. |
312 - 120 (2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s)=192 - 72 (7s, 8s, 9s)= RC/remaining decks = 120/2.3 = 52.174
Eat real food . . . and you won't need medicine (or a lot less!)
Romes
A few things...- You're reading a bit too much in to it. While yes, you must understand the differences between 2D and 6D, if you have a winning game with Hi/Low you can play either. The biggest differences you're looking at from your perspective (downtown DD) is nDAS I believe. That hurts the player to the point where it's no longer <.5% and it actually changes the strategy a bit too.
- Hi/Low is actually going to perform better on 6D and 8D than compared to 1D and 2D. For the lower number decks, if you're going to specialize in just those, then there are other counts that more specialize with the shorter number of decks.
- 1D and 2D are going to come with a lot more heat whenever you get to a point where you have a spread that can make any kind of decent money (even $10-$20/hour). Especially in vegas, and downtown, just messing around with my younger brother and betting $5-$60 I've been shuffled on. Even with a $5-$60 spread on those crappy games (nDAS) that still only comes out to like $5/hour EV. So you could imagine how you'd have to either spread a ton more, up your base bet, or find a better game to get your EV up to something where you could make any kind of okay money.
- Card fluctuation is a bit misleading as well. The fewer number of decks the more each card has an impact on the TC, yes. However, I've sat down at 6D games, and raised my bet after the first round, raised it again after the 2nd round, maxed at the 3rd round and kept it at max bet for half the shoe. The cards don't always come out evenly, which is a good thing for counters, so it doesn't always 'gradually' go up and down (just like it doesn't in DD). From my experiences, DD is good for hit and run because of the fluctuations, where as 6D is better for getting a lot more big bets out in a good shoe. You might see them a bit less frequently, but you'll also have good TC's to bet in for a lot longer than crapy PEN DD games. I'd think in your situation you'd rather be able to play for a while than to play for 5 min, show your max bet at a DD game, then have to decide whether to leave or take a chance getting backed off at one of your favorite places. At 6D games you can sit around for a while and 'camp out' more with a lot less heat. Aka You'd get better comps playing 6D as well.
- Your 'less likely to win' double-down statement is a bit misleading. The reason the shorter number of decks are 'more likely' is due to the concentration of the cards. This is why we use a true count, but when there's a ton of decks left there's a bit more room for variance. Yes, that's a bit of a word salad, so let's look at examples...
1) Let's pretend you have 11 (8-3), the dealer has a neutral card, and you're doubling down at a 2D and a 6D game just after the shuffle...
2D... What are your odds of getting 21? Well, there are 32 face cards out of the remaining 101 cards (your 2 and dealer up card). Your odds of getting a 21 at this point would be 32/101 = 31.6832%
6D... What are your odds of getting 21? Well, there are 96 face cards out of the remaining 309 cards. Your odds of getting 21 at this point would be 96/309 = 31.068%.
So while you 'technically' are 'more likely to win' with the DD double down, the difference is about half a percent (.5%). In 'general' saying you have about a 31% to win your double on either game is an accurate statement. Thus, I think to have an entire category to stating you're more likely to win on DD and less likely on 6D is vastly misleading to your train of thought, while technically correct.
The best way to compare the games is going to be:
Blackjack 6 Deck Vs 8 Deck
Comparing | 2D Blackjack | 6D Blackjack |
---|---|---|
Heat | A lot more heat generally. Any spread with decent money you won't play too long, nor get comps/offers after being backed off. | A lot less heat generally. Can get away with decent spreads that earns some okay EV, stacking on better comps/offers. |
Penetration | Usually pretty bad. Especially downtown, you get 50% most places, maybe up to 60%. | Standard PEN last I checked downtown (1.5/6 = 75%). Even on the strip there are 3:2 lower limit ($10 or $15) several places that cut 1D on 6D (83%). |
House Edge | Downtown games aren't very good... 3/2 H17 DD, SP4, nDAS = .6% HE | Even with 3/2 H17 SP4 DAS = .63% HE, if you're going off strip you can find plenty of places with better low limit rules. So the big difference here is .03%, which is negligible for your situation. |
You're looking at a lot of categories where, yes they're good to 'know,' they should be really erroneous to your decision on what to play. You should be looking for the lowest heat, best PEN, best rules (in that order in my opinion). To reiterate again too, if you're going to use Hi/Low it actually performs better at 6 and 8 deck games than 1 and 2 deck games. There are old threads on here and definitely a lot of threads on other forums (that like to compare counting systems a lot - hint hint) that you can read up on why.
If you love 2D games, and that's what you want to play, then do it. But if you use Hi/Low you'll lose a tiny bit of your edge, and you'll eventually come in to a lot more heat when you start betting any kind of decent action that could earn you even $5-$10 per hour (at least downtown).